Mcx Intraday Gold bearish in 2013, a Moving Average Perspective

Spot gold has fallen below the 200-day simple moving average again and formed a death cross, a technical sell sign, for the second time in less than four months. More information about Mcx Commodity intraday tips visit the site mcx-today.blogspot.com

This could be a more reliable sell signal than the death cross that appeared in mid December and point to a bearish 2012-2013 for the MCX Commodity market because a repeat death cross can indicate that the market is ready for a sharp correction.

After the first death cross, the MCX gold market dropped a little before recovering quickly.

Increasing the chance of a sharp fall is another kind of death cross, which was made by the 22-day MA falling below the 200-day MA.

To be sure, the recent failures of MA signals work against the theory that the market should fall after a death cross or rise after a golden cross.

While the current death cross is the second such signal in four months, the market has failed to show a clear, sustained movement. MA works best when the market trend is strong, as it was between January 24, 2009 and December 12, 2011.

The 200-day MA worked well for gold during this period as the price never dropped below the MA. Investors could have maximised profits by holding a long position following the formation of a golden cross in January 2009 until the end of the period.

When the market moves sideways, the MA can fail, such as in the periods of September 5, 1990 to March 9, 1993 and September 9, 1993 to November 28, 1995, when many false signals were generated.

** Wang Tao is a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals. The views expressed are his own

No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice. Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses. **

Trading Strategies on MCX Gold

MCX Gold Trading gave up its previous session's gains in sequence with the Euro which fell away against the dollar as the two day rally tapered off yesterday. The dollar strengthened a bit after the US data which hinted at concerns of more stimulus from the Federal reserve. More Information about Mcx gold trading tips please visit the site mcx-today.blogspot.com

SPDR Gold Trust the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings edged down by 0.16 percent on Tuesday after gaining 6 tonnes in the previous session. At the same time physical demand for gold from Asian countries was almost muted despite the price hike in the previous session as investors weigh up Bernanke's comments. However looking ahead, investors will closely watch today's key economic release from the Euro zone and US for more trading cues.

Despite repeated attempts to push higher the moves were inadequate to strengthen a rally towards our projected objectives of 1702/1725 levels. Positive divergences in the MACD and momentum indicators are still showing underlying strength in the counter. However prices are now hovering near the 200DMA and 100DMA resistances and without loosing another point might be an indication of the resurgence of bargain hunting.

Prevailing candle stick formation is too supportive for a rally after taking an initial dip. Hence the day we expect a choppy with negative session initially but a short covering rallies are favoured later in the session. In opposition to this view, if prices successfully surpass below 1632 with volume could call for prolonged selling pressure.

Trading strategies

Key levels for the day: Downside: Immediate 1652 followed by 1620/1580.

Upside: Immediate 1702. Strong 1712/1725. Up trend reversal point is at 1742.

Buy on dips to 1672 target 1692 SL 1662

Buy on dips 1652 target 1678 SL 1632

Buy near 1632 target 1655 SL below 1620.

Buy above 1703 target 1755 SL 1680.

Sell near 1702 target 1683/1660 SL above 1712 (risky)

Sell near 1725 target 1700 SL above 1742

After an early consolidation prices likely to turn higher and call for bargain hunting rallies later to the session.

India MCX Gold Imports Seen at 2-year Low as Duties pinch

India's decision to double gold import duty to 4% could cut MCX gold imports by a third in 2012 to their lowest level in two years, allowing China to overtake it and become the world's biggest buyer of bullion, a Reuters poll revealed. More Information about Free mcx tips visit the site mcx-today.blogspot.com

Shipments could drop to 655 tonnes in 2012 after imports were broadly flat at a record 963 tonnes in 2011, according to the median of a poll of 10 respondents, which included importers, jewellers and brokerages.

"The initial reaction from the Commodity market is not good. Doubling of duty within three months is heavy for consumers to digest," said Pinakin Vyas, assistant vice-president with IndusInd Bank , a large gold importer.

Vyas expects a 30% fall in imports in 2012. Imports were at 535.88 tonnes in 2009 due to high supplies of recycled MCX gold as investors cashed in on a 23% rise in prices.

The government's budget last week doubled the import duty and imposed a levy on unbranded jewellery as measures to limit the current account deficit.

Jewellers in India, many of whom sell individual, tailor-made items in tiny market stalls, have shut shop for 10 days so far and plan to extend their strike over the duty. The finance minister has refused to change plans.

Gold demand in India had already faltered due to a rally in global gold prices. MCX Tips For Gold spot prices touched their highest level for this year at the end of February at around USD 1,793 per ounce.

"Last year we had good imports but looking at the pace of the fall so far we are heading for a big fall in 2012," said Prithviraj Kothari, president of the Bombay Bullion Association, who estimated imports at 450 tonnes in 2012, the lowest in the survey.

Analysts and traders feel over the medium term consumers will be forced to accept the tax hike, which could trigger further strictures from the government, although six respondents did not expect another duty hike this year.

"I foresee very limited impact (of high taxes) over a period of time. Consumers will always ask for the price of gold and not tax... the market will always adjust to prices over a period of time," said a dealer with a private bank importing bullion.

Many Indian families buy gold as an investment in a climate of high inflation and crimped real interest rates. Gold is also an integral and important part of weddings, often representing the wealth of a bride and acting as her security.

Today Sell Silver at Rs57,239

MCX Silver:

MCX Silver broke out from the inverted head and shoulders pattern and the down trend line resistance line, however failed to sustain above these resistance levels. This kind of failure leads to opposite reaction or sideways movement. Hence, Way2Wealth now maintains their bias sideways to down. More information about Silver Tips Today you can visit the site mcx-today.blogspot.com

RSI (14) is has come into the neutral zone

Recommendation: Sell at CMP Rs57239 for a target of Rs53502 with a stop loss of Rs59370.

MCX Crude Oil:

MCX Crude is a triangular pattern of which wave c appears to be completed, hence it is still expected to move sideways in the triangle. However, the triangle is a symmetrical one in the wave 4 which will eventually break on the upside. The Bollinger bands have started narrowing down, once an upside breakout is in hands the bands will expand which will lead to a thrust in wave 5 up. So, Way2Wealth continues to maintain their bias up.

RSI (14) has reversed from the neutral region

Recommendation: Buy near Rs5260-5309 for a target of Rs5500 and a stop loss of Rs5232.

MCX Copper:

Copper has been moving up in an upward sloping parallel channel, so it can touch the upper end of the channel i.e. 449; however the risk-reward doesn’t favour the bulls as of now. So, one can sell near 446 for the target 418 which is its 20 DMA.

RSI (14) is placed in neutral zone.

Recommendation: Sell near at Rs446 for a target of Rs415 and a stop loss of Rs451.

NCDEX Chana:

It has provided a breakout from the triangular pattern and has reached near its conservative target of 3846. Now, it has also provided a breakout from the range formed just above the triangle. Hence, the overall trend continues to be up and so Way2Wealth maintains their bias up.

RSI (14) has reversed from the neutral zone to positive.

Recommendation: Buy near Rs3720 for a target of Rs4000 and a stop loss of Rs3640.

MCX Gold Traders Stay Away From Deals On Strike

"MCX Today Tips"

Gold traders in India stayed away from new deals on Tuesday as fourth day of jewellers' strike hit retail demand in the world's biggest consumer of bullion. More Information About MCX Today Tips please visit the site mcx-today.blogspot.com

* "Buying is very slow as jewellers have extended their strike for another two days. We have hardly done fresh imports in the last two days," said a dealer with a private bank, which imports gold for jewellery makers.

* The strike, which started on Saturday and will end on Wednesday, is in protest against two import duty increases since the start of the year.

* "We are idle since last week, and jewellers are in no mood to reopen stores," said Harshad Ajmera, proprietor of JJ MCX Gold House in Kolkata.

* MCX Gold on the Multi Commodity Exchange was down 0.38% at Rs 27,792 per 10 grams. The additional duty will increase the cost of gold by more than Rs 1,000 per 10 grams.

* Silver futures fell more than a percent. Silver for May delivery was 0.85% lower at Rs 57,025 per kg.

Commodity complex: Get MCX Today Tips to Trade Gold, Silver, Crude

"MCX Today Tips"

Kaushal Jaini, assistant vice president of Dani Commodities advises to short gold MCX Rs 27,302 per 10 grams with a stoploss of Rs 27,501 per 10 grams and target of Rs 27,000 per 10 grams. More Information about best Free Commodity Tips visit my site mcx-today.blogspot.com

NS Ramaswamy, Ventura Securities says one can go long on silver MCX May Rs 57,170-58,190 per kg with a stoploss of Rs 56,940 per kg. "One can have a target of Rs 57,480 per kg," he adds.

N Prasad, CEO of Safetrade Advisors advises investors to buy crude MCX March at Rs 5,330 per barrel, with a stoploss of Rs 5,300 per barrel and a target of Rs 5,396 per barrel.

Rajini Panicker, MF Global MCX Commodities recommends investors to go long on copper MCX April at Rs 433-432 with a stoploss of Rs 428 and target of Rs 437-443.

MCX Tips India For 16 March 2012

"MCX Tips India"

Physical demand for gold in India, the world's top buyer, improved on Thursday, following a sharp overnight drop in world prices and on worries the government may raise import duty in the annual budget on Friday.

* The most-active gold for April delivery on the Multi Commodity Exchange was up 0.28% at Rs 27,3 by 3:22 p.m. (1000 GMT), after falling 1.43% in the previous session.

* The contract Rs 27,311 at one stage, the lowest for the front-month contract since January 25.

* "Demand has improved significantly in the past two days. Prices have fallen and there is also concern about import duty hike in tomorrow's budget," said a Mumbai based dealer with a private bank dealing in bullion.

* In January, India raised gold import duty by 90% and doubled the tax on silver as the government grappled with a burgeoning fiscal deficit and looked to increase revenues.

* Demand is also driven by the ongoing wedding season, and festivals that run until mid-May.

* Overseas gold regained some strength on Thursday after a drop in the previous session attracted bargain hunters.

MCX Intraday Tips

"Mcx Intraday Tips"

Physical gold traders in India, the world's biggest buyer of bullion, stayed on the sidelines on Tuesday, despite a decline in the prices from the one-week high hit in the previous session. More Information about Intraday tips visit my site mcx-today.blogspot.com

* The most-active gold for April delivery on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) was 0.38% higher at Rs 27,865, easing from the previous session's high of Rs 28,084.

* "Market is waiting for correction and direction. There were a few stray deals but people don't want to go aggressive before the FOMC and the budget," said Pinakin Vyas, assistant vice-president with IndusInd Bank .

* The outcome of the meeting of the U.S. Federal Open MCX Commodity Market, which sets interest rate in the country, will be known later in the day. Global gold has risen about 9% so far this year on a near-zero U.S. rate outlook.

* The rupee, which hit its highest level in a week, plays an important role in determining the landed cost of the dollar-quoted yellow metal.

* MCX Silver also moved down, in tandem with the yellow metal. Silver for May delivery on the MCX last traded 0.17% lower at Rs 58,296 per kg.

Mcx Gold Trading Tips

"Mcx Gold Trading Tips"

At 15:45 hrs MCX Gold April contract was trading at Rs 27982.00 down Rs 13.00, or 0.05%. It touched an intraday high of Rs 28071.00 and an intraday low of Rs 27966.00. So far 20014 contracts have been traded. More Information about MCX Gold Trading tips visit my site mcx-today.blogspot.com

Free MCX Gold Tips

"Free MCX Gold Tips"

Gold traders in India, the world's biggest buyer of bullion, continued to book the yellow metal as prices stayed near their lowest level in a week, dealers said. More Information about best mcx tips visit my site mcx-today.blogspot.com

* The most-active gold for April delivery on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) was steady near its week's low of Rs 27,821 per 10 grams at 3:04 p.m.

* "Demand is pretty good as traders are finding these prices attractive," said Ketan Shroff, director of Pushpak Bullion in Mumbai.

* Currently, wedding and festival seasons are underway in India, which consumes about 900 tonne of the yellow metal yearly.

* The rupee, which weakened to its lowest level in seven weeks in early intraday plan, kept the downside in prices limited. The local currency plays an important role in determining the landed cost of the dollar-quoted yellow metal.

* MCX Gold and Silver also traded flat. Silver for May delivery on the MCX on the MCX was 0.08% lower at Rs 57,661 per kg.

Silver Tips Today

"Silver Tips Today"

In fact, in our trading room on Tuesday afternoon, we sold our short-term long positions in the metals into that last rally, and many aggressive traders among us even initiated short positions that afternoon.

A number of subscribers seem to have made in excess of 500% profits in their short positions in just one day, based upon some of the notes sent to me, not to mention the multiples that we made since we called the bottom of the market at the end of 2011.

However, from many of the reports that have been posted over the last week, it seems that many other people mistook this move up in the metals as a breakout of some sort, and many initiated larger position in the metals expecting further gains ahead. This is exactly the type of market psychology I warned against in the first article that I published on MarketWatch.

But for now, let's look where the most likely buying point would be for the current correction. At this time, it seems that we may have completed a b-wave in a wave two corrective action. If the b-wave high is in, then we have two levels presenting strong confluence.

In the silver futures, the 33.26 region represents both the .382 retracement level and where the c-wave would be equal to .618 times the size of the a-wave. Second, the 31.90 region represents the .500 retracement level, and would be where the a-wave would equal the c-wave. Therefore, for those who are looking to enter the silver market, the 31-32 region in the futures would be the ideal point to enter or add to long positions.

Again, it has yet to be determined if the market will exceed the prior highs of 2011 or will top out at the 43-46 region. If the pattern confirms such a top, it would present a shorting opportunity which would take silver back down to the 22 region. Again, the market action in March should provide the appropriate guidance as to which pattern is playing out.

MCX Today Tips

'MCX Tips'

At 13:49 hrs MCX SILVER March contract was trading at Rs 58469.00 up Rs 147.00, or 0.25%. It touched an intraday high of Rs 59377.00 and an intraday low of Rs 58222.00. So far 220 contracts have been traded. More Information about MCX Today Tips visit my site mcx-today.blogspot.com

At 13:50 hrs MCX SILVER May contract was trading at Rs 60293.00 down Rs 25.00, or 0.04%. It touched an intraday high of Rs 60594.00 and an intraday low of Rs 60210.00. So far 9687 contracts have been traded.

At 13:49 hrs MCX SILVER July contract was Commodity trading at Rs 61614.00 down Rs 52.00, or 0.08%. It touched an intraday high of Rs 61928.00 and an intraday low of Rs 61525.00. So far 228 contracts have been traded.

MCX Tips India

"MCX Tips India"

MCX SILVERMIC April contract was trading at Rs 59931.00 up Rs 250.00, or 0.42%. It touched an intraday high of Rs 60137.00 and an intraday low of Rs 59550.00. MCX SILVERMIC June contract was trading at Rs 61253.00 up Rs 218.00, or 0.36%. It touched an intraday high of Rs 61486.00 and an intraday low of Rs 61264.00.More Information about Best MCX Tips visit my site mcx-today.blogspot.com

MCX Tips India GOLDM March contract was trading at Rs 27766.00 up Rs 23.00, or 0.08%. It touched an intraday high of Rs 27801.00 and an intraday low of Rs 27754.00.MCX GOLDM April contract was trading at Rs 27989.00 up Rs 22.00, or 0.08%. It touched an intraday high of Rs 28043.00 and an intraday low of Rs 27960.00.

MCX GOLD May contract was trading at Rs 28233.00 up Rs 26.00, or 0.09%. It touched an intraday high of Rs 28343.00 and an intraday low of Rs 28185.00.